The Monetary Reset Is Underway
Silver surges, miners explode, and the cracks in the fiat system widen.
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Quote of the Week
“Once again, in a debt- and fiat-driven collapse, something the major banks aren’t warning you about because it impacts the entire financial system, the monetary metals, gold and silver, are going to be the true outperformers of this cycle.”
— Francis Hunt
Our take: The warning signs are everywhere, but the institutions selling financial products won’t sound the alarm on systemic risk. Debt is unsustainable, fiat currencies are being debased, and confidence in the system is fragile. When cracks widen, capital moves to what can’t be printed or defaulted on. Gold and silver aren’t just inflation hedges; they’re monetary insurance. In debt-driven resets, the metals endure. Position accordingly.
Chart of the Week
Silver had a volatile but ultimately bullish week, climbing from roughly $72 at the start of the week to closing north of $84 per ounce, a gain of roughly 18% on the week from Tuesday’s lows.
The week’s price action was driven by a convergence of macro and geopolitical catalysts. Spot silver spent much of the week trading within a wide consolidation range of $72 to $84, caught between an improving U.S. economy and escalating geopolitical tensions. The dominant upside driver was U.S. & Iran tensions: Trump warned Iran had ten days to make a deal or “bad things would happen,” with an adviser assigning a 90% probability of a U.S. strike on Iran, while reports indicated all U.S. military forces should be in place by mid-March, fueling a surge in safe-haven demand. The January FOMC minutes, released mid-week, revealed broad agreement to hold rates steady, though several members cautioned against easing and suggested a potential rate hike if inflation remained elevated, tilting the tone hawkish. Meanwhile, COMEX registered silver inventory has fallen over 55% from its record peak to 88.79 million ounces, the lowest since November 2024, underscoring tightening physical supply beneath the surface. The combination of geopolitical fear, a weakening U.S. dollar near four-year lows, and shrinking inventories kept buyers engaged throughout the week despite lingering caution from traders still nursing losses from January’s historic selloff.
Gain of the Week
First Majestic Silver exploded this week, surging about 21% from Tuesday’s open and rallying 29% off Tuesday’s low. While silver itself is up over 9% on the week, First Majestic’s move was amplified by a blowout Q4 2025 earnings report and a major dividend hike.
The stock tumbled 9% on Tuesday as silver dropped toward $72 per ounce, then reversed violently after Thursday’s earnings. First Majestic reported record Q4 revenue of $463.9 million, up 169% year-over-year, and swung to a net profit of $105.2 million from a loss in the prior year. Quarterly free cash flow more than tripled to a record $250.4 million, and management doubled the quarterly dividend to 2% of net quarterly revenue starting in 2026.
The bullish case is straightforward: First Majestic is a leveraged bet on silver. The 2025 acquisition of a majority stake in the high-grade Gatos Silver mine shifted its production profile, contributing to an 84% annual increase in silver output. As a primary silver producer with fixed mining costs, margin expansion is massive when silver holds above $80.
Looking ahead, First Majestic is advancing expansion projects at Santa Elena and Los Gatos, with throughput increases planned for H2 2026. If silver pushes back toward $100, First Majestic is positioned to capture the move with force.
Bottom line: Record cash flow, doubled dividend, 84% production growth, and a 26% rally off the lows in three days. First Majestic just reminded the market why it’s the high-beta silver play.
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Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed professional.