The Foundation Is Setting
Base-building after big runs is how bull markets sustain themselves.
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Quote of the week
“I think the precious metals markets are in very good shape, fundamentally, technically. They’re around their new support levels right here. Maybe better support’s a bit lower, but they’re close enough. So I think they’ve held up really well.”
Our take: This is base-building in real time. After explosive moves in both gold and silver, the market is consolidating around key support levels rather than collapsing. That’s healthy. Fundamentals remain strong, technicals are constructive, and price action suggests the metals are digesting gains before the next leg higher. When markets hold support after big runs, it’s not weakness; it’s strength.
Chart of the week
This week, gold prices were mainly driven by a combination of reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a strengthening U.S. dollar, which placed downward pressure on prices. After a strong rally earlier in November, the market shifted as the probability of a December rate cut declined sharply, dampening gold’s appeal because higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Despite these headwinds, geopolitical tensions and continued central bank purchases supported gold prices, preventing a sharper decline. The short-term sentiment turned cautious as investors balanced concerns over less aggressive monetary easing against ongoing global uncertainties.
From a technical perspective, gold has been under selling pressure after failing to hold above $4,200, retreating toward key support near $4,000. The 21-day moving average around $4,048 now acts as resistance, with momentum indicators showing a bearish bias. A break below $4,000 suggests further downside risk toward the $3,930 to $3,960 range. If gold holds support and economic data points to slowing U.S. growth or renewed Fed easing, a rebound toward $4,150 to $4,200 could occur. However, if the dollar strengthens further and no easing signals emerge, gold may extend its decline. The medium-term outlook remains structurally supported by global central bank demand, but short-term volatility is expected as markets digest evolving macroeconomic signals.
“Gain of the week”
Royal Gold closed the week slightly in the red at around $184.50, down just under 1% from Monday’s open, though the stock briefly touched $191.52 on Thursday before pulling back. While the weekly performance appears muted, the story behind Royal Gold’s resilience is compelling.
The company recently completed acquisitions of Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper, adding 40 new revenue-producing royalties and streams to its portfolio. This diversifies the asset base and increases scale at a time when quality streaming deals are competitive. More importantly, Royal Gold’s Board approved a 6% dividend increase for 2026, marking the 25th consecutive year of dividend growth; the kind of consistency that separates quality streamers from the rest.
With gold holding above $4,000 and silver consolidating near $51, Royal Gold’s business model captures upside from metal prices without operational risk.
Bottom line: Royal Gold’s quiet week masks a strong setup. Strategic acquisitions, 25 years of dividend growth, and a diversified streaming model make this a compounding machine in a precious metals bull market.
If you’ve got questions you want Darrell to ask our guest next week, drop them in the comments; he might pull yours for the show!
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed professional.