Silver’s Next Major Setup Is Taking Shape
Recent volatility may be creating the foundation for silver’s next major move higher.
Quote of the Week
“I think it’s the most beautiful chart ever. And I want to see silver bleed out. It’s just temporary. If you’re a buy-and-hold investor, you can ride it out. You’re used to this anyway with silver, pretty much any commodity. So, let it bleed out. You can always add more. Me, as an active investor who doesn’t want to hold stuff going down, I just, you know, I sell near peaks or when they’re overvalued, and I buy it again later when it’s ready to start another big run. Uh, so I think this is, this is an amazing-looking chart. I think people should be excited for this, to be honest.” - Chris Vermeulen
Our take: Chris’s point is that volatility can create opportunity. Silver’s recent weakness has damaged the short-term chart, but pullbacks are a normal part of commodity cycles. For long-term investors, further weakness may create better entry points. For active traders, the focus is on waiting for the next base to form. Either way, the longer-term setup remains worth watching.
Chart of the Week
Silver experienced another volatile week as investors reacted to shifting interest rate expectations and a changing macro backdrop. Early in the week, the metal fell toward recent lows near $56.61 as rising U.S. Treasury yields and a more hawkish Federal Reserve pushed investors toward yield-bearing assets. Concerns about slower manufacturing demand added further pressure.
By the middle of the week, however, silver staged a sharp recovery and climbed back above $62.00. A softer U.S. dollar and buying after deeply oversold conditions helped drive the rebound, while the market’s longer-term physical supply deficit continued to provide support to the broader thesis.
Technically, silver remains in a transitional phase. The rebound from recent lows has pushed momentum indicators out of oversold territory, but the broader chart still needs work. Price remains below key moving averages and is now approaching resistance near $65.00.
That makes the next move important. A higher low and sustained break through resistance would strengthen the case that a more durable recovery is forming. Until then, silver remains volatile and technically vulnerable. Still, the sharp rebound shows buyers are willing to step in at lower levels, keeping the longer-term outlook constructive despite the damaged short-term chart.
Gain of the Week
First Majestic Silver gained more than 5% this week, rebounding alongside silver while also benefiting from a meaningful company-specific development.
On July 2, First Majestic announced that it had secured construction permits for two new underground exploration portals, Santo Niño and Navidad, at its Santa Elena mine in Sonora, Mexico. The company also committed an additional US$12 million in 2026 funding to accelerate underground access. Santa Elena is one of First Majestic’s most important assets, making further exploration success there a potential driver of future production and margins.
The company also remains one of the higher-beta ways to gain exposure to silver. That creates greater volatility when the metal falls, but it can also provide stronger upside participation during recoveries.
Beyond Santa Elena, investors continue to watch Jerritt Canyon in Nevada, where a future restart remains a potential longer-term catalyst. First Majestic’s strong liquidity position gives the company flexibility to fund development and exploration while many smaller operators face a more difficult financing environment.
The company also owns First Mint, allowing it to sell a portion of its silver production directly to consumers as finished products. While this remains a smaller part of the broader business, it provides an additional way to capture value from its production.
Near-term attention now turns to operational progress at Santa Elena and Q2 2026 production results expected in mid-July. Strong execution would help support the recent rebound and provide a clearer picture of the company’s momentum heading into the second half of the year.
Bottom line: First Majestic’s 5% gain reflects both silver’s rebound and improving company-specific momentum. The Santa Elena permits add another potential growth avenue, while the company’s liquidity and exposure to silver leave it well positioned if the metal continues to recover. Volatility is likely to remain high, but the longer-term setup remains constructive.
Honest Question:
What did we miss in the markets this week? What move are you watching that wasn’t in our letter? Let us know in the comments.
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Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed professional.